Contrary to the claims of Central Bank of Nigeria’s governor, Godwin Emefiele that recession is imminent, we are already in a full blown economic downturn with all the indices and evidence glaringly obvious!
Since a recession is ‘ a period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters’, Nigeria is already settled in one even on the admission of public officers.
With the release of the document that Gross Domestic Products fell to 0.36 percent in the first quarter of 2016, a 12 year low ( as released by Nigeria Bureau of Statistics on Friday, May 20), and the last quarter of 2015 rested on 2.11 percent, what other evidence are we looking for.
With exchange rate in tatters, manufacturers complaining, reducing output, closing down and laying off workers, unemployment level climbing ( to 12.1 percent), inflation crossing 13 percent, revenue from oil dwindling and uncertain, we should be told the truth so that we can walk our way out of the economic mess.
Pretending and lying that we are close to a recession is a disservice.
Economists define a recession as ‘a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy ; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades ‘ ( Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco).