The governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr. Godwin Emefiele entertained questions on the current recession impoverishing Nigerians and how to walk out of it.
Apart from speaking at length about how it started, he explained government’s strategies to end the dark days by the last quarter of the year…
Nigeria is in recession, the first in decades or few decades, one or two decades. Things are bad, people are suffering. Mr. Governor, how did we get there?
I think I must apologise when you say that people are suffering. I must apologize that this is happening to our people, but I must confess that what is happening today is as a result of a world global crisis. Global crisis in the sense that we have seen commodity prices dropping, we’ve seen geo-political tension, all around the world. Here you are talking about political tension between Russia and Ukraine while indeed the US and EU are on one side watching. Political tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia trying to play their game as usual, and of course the US Fed’s actions since 2009. Following the mortgage crisis of 2009 which started in the USA, there has been a couple of actions which, given the size of US economy in the world, has had certain impact, both positive and negative on emerging markets and frontier markets, where Nigeria unfortunately stands today.
But I think when you want to address the issue of how we got here, it is important for us to go back into history, go back into history to begin to tell ourselves that, or remind ourselves that, there was a time in this country when this country survived only on revenues from agricultural produce. There was a time in this country when we survived from revenue from groundnut pyramid in the northern part of Nigeria. There was a time when this country survived from the revenues from the western part of the country, and I am talking about from cocoa, to the extent that the tallest building at that time the Cocoa House, was built from the revenue of the export of cocoa. There was a time when this country survived with revenue the country generated from the production and export of palm oil and palm oil products in Nigeria from Mid-western and the south –eastern part of the country.
At that time, I’m talking about the 50s and the 60s, and indeed up to early 90s, Nigeria was the largest producer and exporter of palm produce in the world. Unfortunately we abandoned these sectors because we found oil. I wish what we did at that time was to ensure that we held strong to our potential in the agricultural sector. If we had held strong to our potential in the agricultural sector, in the same vein held strong to the potential that we found because we found oil in Nigeria, our story would have been different today.
Unfortunately, what happened was that, because we found oil, we let our guards down in the agricultural sector, and I’ll give you an example : this for me is a case of a country that unfortunately didn’t plan properly. Example is a country like Norway… Norway is a country with a population of less than five million people, Norway produces agricultural produce particularly fish. It produces and exports fish today. Norway produces also crude oil, to the extent that today Norway is a country that has one of the highest investments in the sovereign wealth funds. Norway indeed has $873bn in its sovereign wealth funds. Notwithstanding having $873bn in its sovereign wealth funds Norway also takes very seriously the output from fish production, to the extent that the country survives on what I call, on its annual basis from revenue that it generates from the export of fish.
What does the country do with revenue from crude? It invests it, and at every point the country is about to use the funds from crude oil, it only uses it for infrastructure purposes, that is a country that has planned for its people. Soon after we introduced the Forex restriction on the importation of Fish, the country’s farmers started complaining to the extent that the parliament in Norway has met twice to see to how to ameliorate the adverse impacts of not being able to export fish to Nigeria on its farmers. Indeed the country has sent several trade delegations to Nigeria to encourage us to lift the restriction so that they can export fish to Nigeria and we in turn pay them our hard earned dollars, which we do not have at this time. What we should all realize is that by allowing the import of goods that can be produced in Nigeria, we export wealth and jobs to those countries and import poverty to our country.
But unfortunately, we didn’t plan this way for our people and that’s why we are where we are today, and I’ll give you a few examples again. In September 2008, Nigeria’s FX reserve stood at $62bn, what did we do with $62bn? At a time when crude oil price was in excess of $120 per barrel, what did the country do? What we could have done is save the money, if we couldn’t save the money. Invest it in infrastructure, invest in industry, invest them in infrastructure and industry that would grow productivity and the wealth of our people. But what did we do? I’ll give you an example, the Central Bank of Nigeria of that time went about licensing class ‘A’, class ‘B’, class ‘C’ bureau-de-change.
For class ‘A’ bureau-de-change, Central Bank was allocating $1m per week, for class ‘B’ bureau-de-change, Central Bank was allocating $750,000 per week, and for class ‘C’ bureau-de-change, Central Bank was allocating $500,000 per week to each bureau-de-change to the extent that between 2005 when central bank of Nigeria started selling dollar cash and 2016 January when we stopped it, the CBN had sold dollar cash of up to $66billion to BDCs. In 11 years, CBN allocated $66bn averaging $6 billion per year. If this didn’t happen, we would comfortably be having well over $90 billion in our reserve account today and we will not be struggling to pay our bills today… If we had thought of other ways to utilize our reserves in 2008 when it was as high as $62b perhaps certainly we would not be where we are. Indeed, at that time I was MD of Zenith, MD of the bank, a deputy governor of the central bank would call to quarrel with me to say why was I not coming to central bank to collect dollar cash to sell to bureau-de-change. I was called to be queried that some people in Kano, some people in Port-Harcourt and in Lagos were calling to say Zenith Bank was not selling dollar cash to bureau-de-change, but of course the bank didn’t see any serious need to disburse dollar cash to bureau-de-change at that time. That was what we did with part of our $62bn.
I go further, between 2009 or 2010 and 2014, of course you remember 2009 was when we had the crisis, when it started with Lehman Brothers collapse, America pumped a lot of money to stimulate the economy, and as a result of pumping that money, some of those funds flowed into emerging markets including Nigeria. At that time again Nigeria removed all forms of capital control to encourage the flow of capital into Nigeria. So what happened during that time, in five straight years we saw crude price at above $105 per barrel. That period we also saw unhindered flow of capital into emerging market into Nigeria; to the extent that by 2013, we had $23bn in capital flows into Nigeria. What did we also do? The CBN started encouraging Nigerians to buy shares/securities abroad. Although the dividends and proceeds of sale of the shares were to be repatriated through the CBN, we don’t have any records to show that the dividends and proceeds of share sale were repatriated. People just had all the discretion to transfer funds as wished, just because we thought we had a lot and didn’t think about a day like today when crude prices will be so low. We should have at that time built our reserves. What did we do with our reserves at that time? I repeat those were some of the actions we took as Central Bank that resulted in the situation that we are today. Now I want to take us back a little. In January 2014, the country had forex reserves which stood at $40.6bn at that time when crude price was about $110 per barrel… Sometime around September 2013, the country was generating from crude oil exports on a monthly basis average of about $3.2bn. By June 2014 when I took over as the Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, reserve had dropped to $37bn and crude price was about $108 per barrel. At that time receipts from FX crude sale had dropped to just about $1.7bn monthly. Soon after that we saw the crisis all over again and between that August and September 2014, up to this time which is about two years, we have seen consistent drop in the prices of crude to the extent that by March 2015 precisely our reserves had dropped to $31bn. At that time crude price had dropped to about $48 per barrel and at that time the country’s receipt from exports of crude had dropped to about $1.3bn. At the same time, the demand for foreign exchange, the demand for import had remained high.
You liken it to a situation where you have a man who has three children, and on a monthly basis, he used to earn N10,000 when things were good. And how did he distribute the N10,000, he gave each of the children, N2,500 for their upkeep and of course he had N2,500 for himself. Unfortunately, when things became bad like we are now, his salary had dropped from N10,000 to N2,500. Unfortunately, the three children still wanted to continue to collect N2,500 stipend. So how would daddy survive, how would daddy fend for the family? All he needs to do is to think about a couple of options. Either to work harder to earn more money which is to increase supply or to work harder and begin to ask the children really what were you doing with N2,500 monthly allowance when things were good because things are no longer as good as they were before. So, we begin to look at what were you spending really on, were you using it to buy milk instead of using it to buy egg or using it to buy some frivolities? The dad will begin to ask how did you spend the money. That is the situation we find ourselves today.
So when this happened, we started by saying, fine there was a need for an adjustment in the currency. We adjusted the currency from N155 to N168 sometime around November 2014. As if that was not enough, our friends kept saying that our currency was over-valued. And we asked a few of our friends if you think the currency was over-valued what do you think it should be at? Some said well N180 will be fine, some said N190 will be fine and by March just to satisfy them, so that the FX supply can come, we adjusted to N197. We went back and said look we have N197… Is there a way you can come back again and let’s begin to see business as usual, they said well sorry we are not convinced, the fundamentals don’t look right. For that reason we are not coming unless you continue to adjust, and we said we could not continue to do an indeterminate adjustment to the currency. Of course, they were not happy with us and we held faith to the fact that we felt N197 to a dollar was adequate and appropriate at that time. Of course, we held faith and after that, we began to say what were the items we were importing? We went into a demand management mode and we said for now let’s leave it the way it is, let’s look at what are the items that we were consuming.
To give you some perspective, in 2005, Nigeria’s import bill was only about N70bn. By 2015, Nigeria’s import bill had risen to about N790bn. What were we consuming? We needed to be sure that what we were consuming at the time when we didn’t have foreign currency. We began to ask ourselves, can these things be produced in Nigeria today? And in the midst of it, we found that importation of petroleum product was taking about 30% of our import. Importation of items like rice, like fish, like sugar, like tomato, like what people call tooth picks and the rest of them were consuming about 10 – 15%. We felt that if there was an opportunity for us to curb the demand for these items, then we should be able to see demand at a level where it could be close to supply for us to have an appropriate price for the currency. And that was how we went into let us diversify the economy. Let us grow our rice in Nigeria, and again I will give you an example. I was on my way abroad on an official trip, I met a gentleman whose company produces aluminum can, and he said the governor, at this time when there is no foreign exchange, we need to look at aluminum cans. He said there are some of our companies who import aluminum cans for beer and soft drinks. We can produce it. Today, because we included aluminium cans in the list of 41 items their sales have gone up tenfold. We also have a company that produces starch and glucose from cassava. They went to some of their customers that were importing this item and said, look we can produce this glucose and starch for you. The importer told them that ‘we would come to see you when our stocks go low’. Their stocks never went low and they never did because they were still importing. After the FX restriction, the importer’s stock truly went low and they had no choice but to patronize the locally made glucose. Today the turnover of the company producing starch /glucose has gone up astronomically and they have created more jobs for Nigerians.
Gentlemen, by the FX restriction on the importation of toothpick, we now have toothpicks being produced at Sango Otta, in Ogun State from bamboo. That company has created jobs for Nigerians. That, in my view, is the positive impact of our demand management strategy. Today, we have a company that has embarked on the establishment of factories to produce 650,000 barrel per day of refined petroleum products, the same company will be producing polyethylene and polypropylene granules and fertilizer. This company plans to invest up to $11 billion in these projects. Gentlemen, by 2017/2018, we will be self-sufficient in local production of petroleum products, polypropylene and fertilizer. These are the positive effects of our demand management strategy. So it has worked.
In a time of recession, you need to spend to achieve growth. However, on the other hand, you have to be very careful so that excessive spending does not result in skyrocketing inflation. You can imagine that by December 2015, the rate of inflation was just about 9% but below 10% in January and now. In fact, by March 2016 and now it has moved from 10% to 17.6%, and that is the reason the CBN considered its mandate of price stability as core. That is why at the last MPC meeting, members tried to weigh the balance between growth and inflation and noted that if we allow inflation to grow at the rate that is so astronomical and uncontrollable, that could be a problem. And that is why we decided at that me that let’s alter the rate. But the primary motive why we altered that rate in an upward direction was to attract foreign direct investment inflow. We did that to achieve the higher yield.
Q: How do you expect the recession to be over with prices going up and manufacturers lacking raw materials?
Let me say this, I must confess that I wasn’t optimistic that the FDI will come initially but with what we have seen in three months, almost $1bn. I feel confident and very confident that there will be more inflow into the system and more and more people will have foreign exchange available for them to do their business. That will improve the industrial capacity. The rate may be high now, but there’s high possibility that with more availability of foreign exchange, the rate will come down. I am very optimistic that a lot of positive things will happen.
Now in terms of short run, I have talked about encouraging inflows to come in. I have talked about how the fiscal authority is trying to push in liquidity to stimulate consumption, demand consumption expenditure and of course, when consumer consumption is stimulated, demand for goods will go up and if these demand goes up, the industrial capacity, then you will see the activities. If we maintain a steady course in the way we are going, and if all those who have foreign exchange repatriate them, more and more people will have foreign exchange to do their business, that will improve industrial capacity. The rates may be high now but now there is the possibility that as we receive more and more foreign exchange, the rate will come down. I am really optimistic that this will happen.
Also in the short run, we can sell assets. You will recall that in April 2015, that I had an interview with Financial Times of London during which even before the government came on board, I had opined that there was need for the government to scale down or sell off some of its investments in oil and gas, particularly in the NNPC and NLNG as at that time when the price of oil was above $50-$55 per barrel. We actually commissioned some consultants that conducted the study and at the end of that study we were told if we sell 10% to 15% of our holding in the oil and gas sector that we could realize up to $40b. Unfortunately, the markets have become soft. Now if we chose to do that now, we could still get $10-$15b or maybe $20b. If we have that kind of liquidity, it will be easy for us to really stimulate the spending and also to turn the economy around. That proposal is still on the table because I have also heard that some of our colleagues in the FEC have talked about it and a lot of people too. If we take that option, I am optimistic we will be able to stimulate the economy and earn foreign currency that we can really use to kick-start, stimulate the economy.
Don’t forget, even in the US, when the economic crisis started, the US government stimulated the economy with about $900bn and what was injected into the economy and subsequently injected $85bn monthly for an extended period of time… In Japan and Europe with low rate of inflation, in fact they have negative interest rate. Anytime they want to stimulate the economy by liquidity, if you push the inflation it will not affect prices. We are trying to fight inflation to remain at a point where it will not be too high and become injurious to our people.
Q: Despite the measures to get out of the recession and government’s intention to come up with a bill to shorten the procurement process, there is the absence of chief executives in most of the government agencies where the spending actually takes place.
Unfortunately, I don’t agree with you because we have cabinet members and most of these agencies are headed by ministers and we have people who are working in acting capacity. There are other people who are there as executive directors, and I do know that once we are able to shorten the procurement process, the absence of chief executives will not hamper spending.
Q: You are talking about more spending and the fiscal side driving at more revenue through taxation. How do you align the monetary policies with fiscal so that you can drive a common purpose?
Let me thank you but also assure you that both the monetary and fiscal are working together and that is why you could see a situation where today even where we have revenue shortage or deficit, the monetary authority is trying to bridge the gap. We said that we can give you a bridge to go ahead and spend when you obtain the foreign loan or when your revenue improve you can repay the bridge that we have created for you in order to stimulate spending. That is a practical case of collaboration between the monetary and fiscal authorities.
Now, when you talk about increases in taxes, there have been a lot of proposals presented to the federal government that for instance VAT should go up. And I must confess that taxes in Nigeria, particularly the VAT is among the lowest in the world. In spite of that the government has been very reluctant to increase the VAT rate because it really understands the suffering and the yearning of the Nigerian people. But what the government admitted of which you and I also know is that there are so many people side tracking and avoiding payment of VAT thereby hampering the implementation of the VAT regime. However, the government is working to widen the scope horizontally so as to capture more people to pay their taxes. That is what I’m aware the government is doing, and not at this time for the government to be pushing for increment in taxes.
Q: You have explained how exogenous shocks contributed to the recession in Nigeria but you have not addressed the issue of internal problems arising from the delay in putting in place the necessary structural adjustments which may have warded off this recession. For instance, marketers right now are talking about stopping the importation of fuel, because of the Impact of the fall in the value of the naira. And if this is not addressed, petrol queues are bound to resurface and push up prices and further impoverish the masses. Also there’s need for a rethink about the TSA that’s currently being sterilized in the CBN, of which some of the money could be used to spend our way out of recession.
I will take the issue of the TSA first. As far as I’m concerned, the TSA is a programme that several governments in the past have tried to implement but unfortunately they did not have the will to do so. And I will give you an example: is it fair that the government allows ministries and agencies to release its money to the banks and those banks don’t pay any interest to the government. At best they pay 1 or 2 per cent but at the same time when government wants to borrow by selling treasury bills, government goes back to these banks and these banks use the liquidity that the government gave through ministries and pass back to the federal government at 12, 13 or 14 per cent. This is colossal waste of resources on the part of government. So, people believe that because TSA is sitting in the Central Bank is part of what is causing the crunch, it is not true, because when government was going to withdraw the TSA, the monetary policy committee also looked at its own ways of releasing some funds into the system through the CRR that was held so that the money cycles back into the CBN so that the government gets its money back. So, I do not agree that the TSA is a major issue here.
Secondly, on the necessary structural adjustments, again, it is unfair to blame this government for not taking decisions on structural adjustments and I will tell you this, normally when you have an adjustment in currency worldwide, those adjustments must be followed with structural reforms. Just as the president talked about, in 1984 currency was about to one naira to $3. After that we went into SAP. SAP was meant to build structural adjustments or structural reforms but when the crude price started to improve, everybody abandoned the structural reforms and that was why we could not see to effectively diversify the economy.
There was a government that came at that time and said let’s pursue the Green Revolution, and another government said everybody should go to the farm. But immediately crude prices started going up, everybody abandoned the Green Revolution, everybody abandoned the go back to the farm initiative. And that’s why we are saying now that yes, an adjustment is going on; the adjustment in the currency has happened and there is a need to follow through with some structural reforms that would lead to diversifying the economy. For instance, that we are lucky that we have somebody who has decided to invest in a refinery with the capacity for 650,000 barrels per day. We are lucky the same person has decided to invest in petrochemical and fertilizer. These three projects alone is costing nothing less than $11 billion. And these three products, that is petroleum, petrochemical and fertilizer take nothing less than 35 per cent of our import bill. What happens by the end of 2017 to 2018 when we stop the importation of these products? You will see that we are able to conserve our reserves because the demand for foreign exchange for these items will reduce. What does it take to produce these items? To produce fertilizer you need gas and to produce petrochemical products like polyethylene you need gas also, and to produce petroleum products all you need is crude oil. So, all you need to do is to import the plants and machines. So, I’m saying that the structural adjustment will work. After that government is pushing that we must diversify the economy. And these items that we are importing and which can be produced in Nigeria, we must see to it that they are produced here. That is why government has continued to support the restriction on foreign exchange for these items like rice, fish and tomatoes.
I have told you the successes we have attained. I can say that for the first time I’m seeing a toothpick that is produced in Nigeria. The VP gave me a sample of that toothpick on Wednesday. And what does it take to produce toothpick, bamboo and the machine you need to produce toothpick is less than $50,000 to buy the machine. The machine can be installed in a room that is half the size of this place we are right now. We must embrace structural reforms to the extent that you must tell yourself that learn lesson. There was a recession and a global economic crisis where your revenue dropped. You went with that drop in revenue, went into the valley. When there is structural adjustment programme and fortunately your revenue also grows, you adopt structural reform strategy so that where there’s another round of recession, you will be able to withstand it. Because economic crises come in season. They come and they go. When next an economic crisis comes in, it’s either that you are at par with it or even stand taller and enjoy growth rather than going into the valley. Those are the kind of things we are talking about.
You also talked about petroleum products pricing. Petroleum pricing is something that citizens have taken passionately. I think Nigerians love and trust Mr President that is why despite the increase in the prices, Nigerians accepted it. Why? Because they found out that because of shortage of foreign exchange, marketers stopped importing the product. NNPC was saddled entirely with the responsibility of importing petroleum products. Of course, it became so bad that it became embarrassing to the citizen to the point that elsewhere people were buying fuel at N86 while others are buying as high as N150 a liter and at N200 in different parts of the country. People began to agitate that if I could buy at N200 or N150 well, just make it available. That now informed the decision to increase the pump price from N86 to N145 per liter so that people can move around to conduct their business. Hence, at that rate, it will be possible for them to source their foreign exchange at a price not less than N280 to the dollar.
It is unfortunate this has attracted high rate of inflation. With the rise in petrol price from N86 to N145, which is about an 80% increase. Imagine, a wholesaler from Jigawa or Zamfara, by the increase in petrol price, it means the transporter has no choice than to increase the price of transportation fare by 80%. That tomato lands in Ketu or Wuse market. By the time it lands there, the retailer gets to the market to buy tomatoes and the wholesaler sells to her plus 80%. That’s the second leg of the 80%. The woman carries the basket of tomatoes to Ketu bust stop and takes taxi. The cabman takes another 80% increase in transportation from Ketu to Obalende, which is increment number three. The tomatoes get to Obalende where the woman begins to resell. When you and I now go to buy from her, you can imagine how the 80% scenario has come to affect the price vis-a-vis inflation. If you go to the restaurant, for instance you go to Obalende to buy tomatoes, when you buy the tomatoes the lady who is buying increases the price by 80% and it is used to cook food for the restaurant, what you call ‘mama put’ right? This is four. Definitely the plate of rice laced with tomatoes and meat that you are going to buy, the price will also go up but 50 %. So in the transmission mechanism, the price goes up 5 times as a result of the Adjustment from N86 to N145. That is why the adverse impact on prices has been so colossal on our people and government will continue to do its best to moderate and we the monetary authorities will look for our own way to inject liquidity so that what has gone up through the exchange rate the manufacturers can get it through a moderated interest rate and improved industrial capacity. It will help to moderate prices so that the impact of the exchange rate is not so adverse on prices. It is a delicate balance and we must give credit to the fiscal and monetary authorities for what they are doing to ensure that the impact is reduced and that we turn round the corner as soon as possible.
Q The TSA issue appears to be a case in which you have got everybody in through one door and none is coming out. How will the government avert this looming petrol crisis?
I am telling you that with the arrangement put in place and I mean the agreement between CBN and NNPC to ensure that dollar is available to the importers of petroleum products, all the IOCs selling dollars have been directed to channel to marketers to import fuel. This a mechanism created by CBN and NNPC. At the time this programme started, we were told that they could procure forex at no more than N280 to the dollar and the price should not be more than N145 per litre. In working out the effective price of N145, the template provide for nothing less than N30 per litre margin for the marketer. You can quote me on this. That template is available. By making N30 per litre available to the marketer, what this does is that even if the marketer does not find the product at N280 to the dollar and he finds it at a price close to N300 to the dollar or N305 or even N310, that marketer will still make a profit even though it could be a reduced margin. That is the template that is currently in place and I am optimistic that it will work. Based on this arrangement between CBN and NNPC, we will see to it that IOCs are not compelled to sell at a fixed rate, we will see to it that they sell at the average of the interbank rate of the previous day which means where the marginal rate is N305, and some are selling at N310 or N315 the rate will then be between N305 and N310. If the marketer procures forex at an average of N305 and N310, they will still make a profit and sell that petroleum product at not more than N145 per litre.
Q: I want to know what you are looking at in the short term and on the bridge funding arrangement to stimulate the economy? Again you once talked about the need to sell some assets in the oil industry, and just yesterday, Alhaji Aliko Dangote also spoke on CNBC and talked about selling some of the assets the government is holding onto in order to raise money. But the impression one is getting is that government is not considering that advice.
What I am saying is this: government can stimulate demand by spending to fund it’s budget and we as the monetary authority have told the fiscal side that if the need arises to the point where they need a bridge fund we will provide that. We are not there yet and I would imagine that that should not bother you at this time. Government is working to stimulate the economy by spending. That’s why as you heard the minister of finance talking about, the fact that N420bn and another N370bn to N400bn is being made available this week, is certainly an attempt to stimulate the economy through spending. The most important thing now is that we need to stimulate the economy and the fiscal authority is alive to its responsibilities in achieving this objective.
On the sale of assets in oil industry, you will recall that April 2015 I granted an interview to Financial Times of London where I suggested that in order to raise money to fund its capital expenditure, government needed to sell between 10% to 15% of its oil and Gas assets. At that time oil price was above N50/N55 per barrel, and our consultants did the numbers and told us that we could raise between $25 to $35 billion. I would imagine that that option is still on the table because more people even in the cabinet have made the same suggestion and if it happens, that will be fine, including the option to buy back the assets at some premium if contemplate buying back when the crude prices move up and the assets value also move up. You know that in government there are those against and those in favour. The argument in favour of selling the assets has gained a lot of credence recently.
Q: I notice the inconsistency of CBN in the resumption of sale of forex to BDCs after you stopped that in January this year. Secondly, some of the $1bn you said has started flowing in, don’t you think this is hot money which may be dangerous for the economy?
CBN is not inconsistent. And I will tell you how. As at January 2016, CBN was the only central bank in the world that was selling forex cash to BDCs and we felt that because of the haemorrhage on our reserves we needed to stop. At the time we said that we were stopping, go and read the speech, we said that, the CBN would seek to open other windows where the BDCs could continue to do their business. By this current arrangement, we are saying that the diaspora funds coming in through money transfer operators should form a substantial part of what should go to fund the BDC market. This is not a reversal. It is certainly not a reversal. It only took us about six months to eventually say let’s look at this window as a way to channel the funds coming. In any case we are being told that over $20bn comes in annually in diaspora money. If some portion of this diaspora money comes in, we might as well channel a little of it towards meeting the needs of citizens who need retail cash who want $5,000 and below. It is by no means a reversal but in consonant with what had been said at the time we contemplated that the CBN was no longer going to put cash into the market.
Now the question of whether the inflow of about $1bn is not hot money, you see the template that we designed for the new flexible forex market regime is the template where we said that that we will introduce not just spot but also futures. What futures is that it encourages more and more importers to push their FX demand into the futures with varying maturity profiles. What I mean is the we are in the valley now and we have put in place a document that provides for a single exchange rate determination mechanism, we put in place a system that reduces the level of volatility where it pushes demand that would have been stuck in the spot market into the future. Because that system is seen to be a credible system, they are coming at a time when you are in the valley I don’t think it can be worse than where it is right now. So what am I saying? You will find a situation where naturally there would be maturity of these investments. As many are coming in others are going out and if the net effect is a negative we dip into our reserves to plug in. If the net effect is positive it goes to boost the reserves. That’s the way it is supposed to work. If while we are in the valley they are encouraged by the system we have put in place to come in then all we can expect is that as more and more the FPIs come in, we will naturally move northwards and up the hill.
Q: What we know of getting countries out of recession is that governments fraternise with the private sector. During the president’s visit to the US we were told that he was not favourably disposed that they were on the trip. Secondly, when you introduced the flexible exchange rate it was supposed to close the gap between the official and black market rates, but that is not happening yet.
That report was untrue. It is false that the president was unhappy with the private sector people who attended that event, albeit, as you used the word ‘uninvited’. It is untrue and I want to use this opportunity to correct the impression and to put it bluntly that Mr. President was cracking a joke and if you watch that video after he cracked that joke everybody laughed. Again I am aware that President Buhari has been meeting with private sector leaders to encourage them to work with government to get us out of this situation and that is being done. Only last week the economic management team met leaders of the private sector to talk about what role the private sector would play. On Monday, the day after tomorrow, the economic management team is going to meet with the private sector in Abuja. That is not a government that does not want to fraternize with the private sector.
Secondly, the flexible forex system is supposed to close the gap. But don’t forget that we are coming from a very wide gap situation. I am aware that there are two rates in the market. The CBN rate and the interbank rate. I am also aware that some people are operating in the parallel/free funds market, which by Nigeria’s foreign exchange laws is an illegal market. That market is very shallow and we often stress that the rate in that market should not be used as a barometer for determining the value of our currency. Now, talking about the interbank rate which today varies between 305 and the other rate at about 320, I am optimistic about it and I am saying this for the record that as more flows come in, the market rate will close. Again, on the parallel market, it is unfair to use the shallow market as a basis for determining the value of our currency. No one uses the Travelex rate at Heathrow to determine the exchange rate for the pound in the United Kingdom. So it is unfair to use that to determine the value of our currency. Those who are dealing in the market are doing so illegally. We should not be encouraging the tendencies of those people who are involved in capital flight, or those who want to conduct foreign exchange business without providing the necessary documentation.
Q: But Mr. Governor, that illegal market is the one that controls the prices that you at CBN are trying to moderate.
And I repeat to you, sir. The monetary policy committee that has responsibility for looking at the exchange rate management will not look at this as the basis for determining the value of the naira.
Q: You said with respect to the recession that we have bottomed out. Now when do you think this recession will be over?
Let me repeat myself, we are already in the valley. The only direction is to go up the hill and the government is doing everything possible to ensure that we move up the hill. I am optimistic that based on the actions being taken by government, based on the pronouncements of President Buhari that we must think out of the box, the monetary and fiscal authorities are working together and I’m optimistic that the fourth quarter results will show evidence that we have started to move in the direction of the hill, and out of the recession. And I repeat, the worst is over. The Nigerian economy is on the path of recovery and growth. So please, if you are a bystander or sideliner you are losing. Join the train now before it leaves the station.