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Why and how APC won in the South West

AS the results of the Saturday, March 28, 2015 presidential and National Assembly elections are still being collated in some states, the results so far released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and some party agents in the South West have indicated so far that All Progressives Congress (APC) is leading comfortably ahead its close contender, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the zone, with the exception of Ekiti which was cleared by PDP.

In Osun State, the results of the presidential election in 26 out of 31 local government areas so far indicated that APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (retd) has won convincingly in the state.  One major factor that worked for APC in the state was not unconnected with the fact that the incumbent governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is a grassroots politician that really understands the rule of the game in the state.  In Aregbesola’s constituency, the party defeated PDP with a wide margin despite the presence of some PDP stalwarts, including Otunba Fadahunsi, Sogo Agboola and others in the area.

The victory of APC in Iwo, Olaoluwa and Ayedire was simply because the majority of PDP supporters in federal constituency have defected to APC during the Saturday, August 9, 2014 governorship election which favoured Aregbesola.  Equally, the sitting federal lawmaker for the constituency is APC and was well on ground throughout the election.  PDP only won in one or two wards, including Ward 1 in Olaoluwa Local Government where the former PDP federal lawmaker, Hon. Wole Jolaoye is from.

However, the defection of Senator Isiaka Adeleke from Ede North has really helped the party as almost all his supporters left PDP with him shortly before the Saturday, August 9, 2014 governorship election in the state.  He has now won as Senator representing Osun West on the platform of APC.

Other decampees who also boosted the chance of Buhari in the state included former governor of the state, Olagunsoye Oyinlola from Odo Ottin Local Government, Osun Central Senatorial District, where APC also defeated PDP with about 3,000 votes.  Also Oyinlola’s former Chief of Staff, Peter Babalola, a.k.a Peter Power, proved he was on ground as he delivered his local government, Oriade to APC.

However, it wasn’t a smooth ride for APC in Ife and its environs as the party lost in two of the four local governments in the areas.  This incidentally led to the defeat of the actor turned politician, Hon. Rotimi Makinde.   Senator Babajide Omoworare was later the winner of Ife Ijesha Senatorial district.  APC was only able to thrash PDP in Ife North and South with small margin.

The defeat of APC in this constituency was largely due to the presence of the controversial politician, Senator Iyiola Omisore who lost to Aregbesola in the Saturday, August 9, 2014 guber poll, and being the area of the spokesperson of President Jonathan Campaign Organisation, Femi Fani Kayode.  Apart from these two local governments, APC won the rest 28 with reasonable margin.

In total, APC polled 239,412 ahead of PDP’s 157,586 votes.

In Oyo State, APC also won massively with the exception of only two local governments, Orire and Itesiwaju where the party lost to PDP.

One of the main reasons for APC’s victory in Oyo was premised on the performance of the incumbent governor, Senator Isiaka Abiola Ajimobi.  Also, most people in the state have spoken in one voice to disregard the no second chance factor which has always worked against the state in terms of dividends of democracy.

Also, other political parties in the state are in leadership crisis. For instance, Alao Akala’s defection to Labour Party (LP) in 2014 was a bonus to APC as most of his supporters in Ibadan didn’t follow him, instead, they aligned with APC.

The party was also said to be on ground for the presidential campaign in the state, leaving no stone unturned.

However, PDP structure was also weakened due to the delay in the campaign fund budgeted for the party by the Presidency.

With what happened at the presidential election now, there are brighter chances for the APC to retain the governorship seat of the state.

The results so far from Ogun State also indicated APC candidate, Gen. Muhammadu Buhari defeated his opponent, President Jonathan with 308,390 to 207,950 votes.

The party won in all the local governments except in Imeko Afon local government where PDP gubernatorial candidate for the state, Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (GNI) comes from and two other local governments Remo and Shagamu.

However, APC lost to PDP in Ogun East Senatorial district with the influence of Buruji Kashamu and Otunba Gbenga Daniel (OGD) combined efforts.  Kashamu also won his senatorial seat, defeating his close contender, Dapo Abiodun of APC.  Kashamu won because of his overwhelming popularity and political strength.

However, the political atmosphere in Ogun Central is very much tensed as at Monday, March 30, 2015.  But the chances of APC defeating PDP are very bright as the area is a convergence zone of most political bigwigs in the state who are mainly APC.  They include incumbent governor of the state, Ibikunle Amosun, former President Olusegun Obasanjo, who recently quit PDP and tore his membership card of the party, Prince Yanju Lipede, who also recently decamped to APC and others.  With the results released so far in the state, it showed clearly that Buhari defeated President Jonathan of PDP.

But things are not rosy for APC in Ekiti as the party suffered a humiliating defeat in the hands of PDP.  The results released in the state confirmed that the governor of the state is really in control.  He really proved he is a factor to reckon with in the politics of the state.

Jonathan defeated Buhari in all the local governments in the state, though with close margin.  Unlike the governorship election where Fayose had a landslide victory, sending the then governor, Kayode Fayemi out of Ado Ekiti, the seat of power of the state designated as Fountain of Knowledge.

Fayose’s grassroots tactics and so-called stomach infrastructure agenda really facilitated the party’s victory in the election.

However, in Ondo State, the political atmosphere seemed to have changed, now against the incumbent governor of the state, Dr. Rahman Mimiko as PDP lost to APC in major areas of the state.  In the eight local governments where election results have been released so far, APC defeated PDP in four out of the eight local governments, while PDP only retained three. But in Akoko, both parties are neck to neck.

Mimiko’s influence has actually faded in the state since his defection to PDP and some of his loyalists refused to follow him, instead they all decamped to APC and equally worked for the success of the party in the Saturday, March 28 election.

However, with the results of the presidential election so far in the South West, Jonathan’s endorsement by the traditional rulers and council of elders from the zone has little or no effect on his performance at the just concluded poll as he didn’t even win up to 40 per cent of the total votes.



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